4.16.2008

THE WINNER EFFECT




[You can almost hear Gordon Gekko cheer. Financial traders are widely seen as filthy rich, brash, and, well, ballsy. Now it turns out that there's cash in those cojones. According to new research from the University of Cambridge, a male trader's daily testosterone level is higher on days when he makes more than he would in an average day. What's more, the higher a trader's morning testosterone level, the more money he'll likely have netted before the close of business that day. Testosterone, in other words, can be good for business.

Testosterone levels are known to rise during competitive encounters as much as they do during sexual ones, so it's hardly surprising that the hormone responds to the trials of financial markets. More remarkable, perhaps, is that no one had previously worked out how, especially considering the known risks — sensation-seeking and impulsivity among them — associated with persistently high levels of the hormone. The increased levels measured in Cambridge's brief study might have been acute, as opposed to chronic. And the research was carried out during a relatively calm period in the markets. But consider what scientists call the "winner effect": two athletes preparing to compete against one another will both experience rising testosterone levels. After the race, though, only those of the eventual winner would continue to climb; the loser's falls. The winner thus gets a persistent boost in confidence and appetite for risk, which increases the same competitor's chance of winning again.]-TIME